Why Does Down Look Like Up to the Conservatives?
by Lynne Fernandez
Coming into work today I was struck by two large billboards. One has a photo of Hugh McFayden with a promise to cut taxes. The other delivers a simple text message: Conservatives will cut taxes; NDP will raise taxes. That a Conservative party would promise to cut taxes is old hat, but can we say the same about this NDP government raising taxes?
Given that a government’s future behavior is best predicted by past behavior, let’s examine the NDP’s record on taxes since coming into office.
CCPA Mb. started reporting on the NDP’s tax record in our 2006 Alternative Provincial Budget: “As cited in Budget 2003, the period between 2000 and 2003 was witness to the ‘largest four-year cut in personal income taxes in Manitoba history.’ Between 2001 and 2003, the average Manitoban received an 11.5% personal tax cut.”
Want more detail? The corporate tax rate was 17% when the NDP took office in 1999. Today, the corporate tax rate is 12%. That would be a 5% decrease in the corporate tax rate.
Manitoba is the only province in Canada to have a 0% tax rate for small business.
Finally, last year CCPA Mb. noted that since it took office, the current government has removed $1 billion from revenues through tax cuts.
CCPA Mb. has spent the last 10 years criticizing the NDP government for cutting taxes too much, so this Conservative prediction is pretty hard to take seriously.
It would be helpful if the Conservatives would back up their predictions with credible evidence. Presented as it is, this one falls flat on its face.
So back to the question: why does “down” look like “up” to the Conservatives? Answer: Too much spin is disorienting.
Now you’re “unspun”.
Lynne Fernandez is a political economist with the CCPA Mb.
Education Funding Not “a Game of Chicken”
by Shauna MacKinnon
In a letter to the Brandon Sun published on September 14th, Robert Rivard, the President of Manitoba Schools Board Association, expressed concern with the Let’s Pay Fair Coalition’s campaign seeking to eliminate all property taxes in support of education.
Rightly so he worries about the recklessness of assuming that the $750 million revenue shortfall would miraculously appear from elsewhere. He cautions that this approach is dangerous, amounting to “a game of chicken with our children’s futures”.
Shauna MacKinnon is the director of CCPA-Manitoba.
Where is Poverty in the Debate?
by Errol Black
During the current election campaign we’ve heard a good deal of noise from people with power about how hard done by we are in Manitoba. Their biggest beef is that corporate profits and personal incomes are taxed too high relative to resource rich provinces to the west of us.
However, we haven’t heard anything from individuals and families who are trapped in poverty situations – earning their poverty in low-wage, short-hour jobs, unemployed, on welfare, homeless, dependent on food banks and soup kitchens, etc. This is because the poor have no voice and no political clout. Therefore, they are of little interest to the people who run businesses and governments in our communities.
The sad thing about this state of affairs is that we have massive amounts of data and analyses which confirm that pervasive poverty adversely affects virtually all aspects of life in our communities including, crime, ill health, poor educational outcomes, and the overall quality of life, which in turn imposes significant burdens on resources in the health care, educational and justice systems. This was set out very clearly in a book published in 2010 by the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives-Manitoba, titled The Social Determinants of Health in Manitoba and by Wilkinson and Pickett (2009) in their international best seller The Spirit Level: Why More Equal Societies Almost Always Do Better.
Given these links between poverty and everything else, it would seem to make sense that in this province political parties would be attempting to develop economic and social plans that include at their core a commitment to invest in policies and programs that are designed to drive down poverty and alleviate the pressures on all levels of the public sector.
Is it too late for us to demand that party leaders participate in a debate based on poverty-related issues?
In yesterday’s leaders debate, all three leaders referred to poverty as a root cause of crime and comments were made about needing to support kids living in poverty and ensure them access to education. Selinger pointed to their record and intentions regarding minimum wage in recognition that poor kids have poor parents who need to earn a decent income. McFadyen is on record as opposing minimum wage increases and Jon Gerrard has been silent on the issue.
A question that won’t be raised during this election is: how are people on social assistance faring in Manitoba and what are the leaders going to do about it? The answer to this question is that people on social assistance are not doing very well. This is confirmed by a report from the National Council of Welfare on welfare incomes in 2009 which shows, amongst other things, that: (i) the welfare incomes of Manitobans rank near the bottom in most categories; and (ii) these incomes are much below welfare incomes in 1992, the peak year for Manitobans after which time they began a decline.
The poorest of the poor are those who must rely on social assistance for support. All political parties are able to avoid addressing this because people living in poverty have no political clout, and many are disillusioned and less inclined to vote.
Is it too late to get this important issue on the agenda?
Errol Black is the Chair of CCPA Manitoba
by Errol Black
Buried at the bottom of the business section in today’s Winnipeg Free Press is an update on Canada’s economic prospects.
A more appropriate headline for the Winnipeg Free Press report might have been “Banks take gloomier outlook on jobs, economy, but prospects for Manitoba much improved in 2012.”
The story reports that RBC has reduced its estimates for real GDP growth for the Canadian economy in 2011 from 3.2 per cent to 2.4 per cent. The estimate for 2012 is 2.5 per cent.
RBC downgraded this year’s economic forecast for nine of the ten provinces—it pared back Manitoba’s forecast to 2.8 per cent in June anticipating bad weather to affect wheat and canola production by 20 per cent and weak U.S. economic growth to take a bite out of Manitoba exports to the United States.
This latest report has good news for our province. It shows that “Manitoba and Alberta were the only two provinces to receive an RBC upgrade in their 2012 economic forecast.”
The RBC places Manitoba among the top three performers for both 2011 and 2012 (following Alberta and Saskatchewan) and better than the national average. The forecast for Manitoba has been upgraded from 3.4 percent to 3.5 per cent.
Errol Black
The August Labour Force Survey was released on September 9th. Although Manitoba fares better than most, the results are not encouraging.
A number of analysts have noted in recent weeks that the lack of growth and job creation in the economy is attributable to a combination of factors. These include the appreciation of our dollar and the sad state of the U.S. economy which is hurting the export of manufactured products to the U.S., and a growing sense amongst consumers and firms that things are likely to worsen in the immediate future because of a deterioration in the global economy.
Progressive economists argue that the latest numbers are good reason for the federal government to put its rush to austerity on hold and focus attention instead on the worsening problems in the economy and labour market.
For the country as a whole, employment growth has all but stalled. Over the 12 month period ending August 2011, employment was up by 223,000 jobs or 1.3%. This increase in employment bumped the employment rate from 61.8% to 61.9%. On the flip side of the coin, the number of unemployed workers fell by 138,300. While this was reflected in a reduction of the unemployment rate from 8.1% to 7.3%, it is also important to note that there were 132,000 less individuals in the labour force, a result which reduced the participation rate by 0.5 points (from 67.2% to 66.7%).
These results suggest that job creation in the country as a whole has not gained much traction over the past year. This is confirmed by the changes in the past month – July to August, 2011- that has seen the employment rate unchanged at 61.9%, the participation rate down 0.1 points (66.8% to 66.7%), and the unemployment rate up 0.1 points (7.2% to 7.3%).
Manitoba fares better than most
Not surprisingly, the conditions in the national labour market over the past year are replicated in most provinces, including Manitoba, Saskatchewan and British Columbia. The sole exception is Alberta where job creation does have traction.
A silver lining to this otherwise discouraging situation is that the unemployment rate remains low in Manitoba at 5.4%.
There are a few other bright notes in the Manitoba economy.
- According to a recent survey by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business, confidence of small to mid-size businesses in Manitoba tends to be stronger here than in the country as a whole. One result of the CFIB survey that is especially encouraging in relation to the labour force is that “20 per cent of Manitoba businesses plan to increase full-time employment in the next three to four months (as compared to 14 per cent nationally) and only five per cent plan to decrease (as compared to 12 per cent nationally).”
- University enrolment is up. According to Free Press reporter Nick Martin, “Enrolment in Winnipeg’s two largest universities has soared to record levels” (Winnipeg Feee Press, September 10).
- Over the longer term, the province’s plan to move ahead with strategic investments in Hydro power development and physical and social infrastructure projects will bolster employment and contribute to improvements in productivity.
- The continued recruitment of immigrants from off-shore, the expansion of training for the skilled trades, and initiatives to increase retention levels in the public school system, such as support for off-campus high-school programs and adult education programs, will enhance employment and productivity growth.
- Ongoing investments in infrastructure by all levels of government plus private-sector initiatives that are in the works should help ensure that small business growth and job creation prospects are further improved in the coming months.
Like the rest of Canada and the world, Manitoba has challenges ahead, but we are better positioned to weather the storm than are most.
The Right to Housing Coalition (of which the CCPA-MB is a member) and Planners Network present an election forum on affordable housing in Manitoba. Come to hear the Liberal, NDP, and PC housing platforms.
September 19, 7pm
Winnipeg Free Press News Café, 237 McDermot
See you there!
A Clock Worth Watching
The editorial in September 7th’s Winnipeg Free Press about the Canadian Tax Payers Federation’s “debt clock” conjured up a funny image for me: a group of people watching a free-floating number growing while they get more and more agitated. The more the number grows, the higher their blood pressure goes. Will they be O.K.? Should we give them blankets and water? Should we call the paramedics?
Relax!! There’s really no reason for people to stress out over one number: there are other equally important numbers that have to be added to the analysis before we can determine the state of Manitoba’s economy. Once a real assessment is done, you’ll be happy to learn that we’re doing amazingly well.
In order to help you chill out and think clearly before you vote, CCPA Mb. is presenting a series designed to help you cut through the spin.
Our Election 2011 UnSpun series will calm your election vertigo and let you think clearly about important issues before you vote.
A Clock Worth Watching explains why another “value-added” clock would be much more interesting than that scary debt clock. Check it out: it’ll make you feel better.
Lynne Fernandez
McFadyen’s Fitness Tax Credit for Adults – Really?
The bad public policy ideas are beginning to pile up as Manitoba’s provincial election shifts into overdrive.
A favorite of mine is Hugh McFadyen’s Fitness Tax Credit for adults. McFadyen’s plan will allow gym members to claim up to $500 of eligible costs for a maximum tax credit of $54.00. This policy was announced as part of the Conservative Economic Strategy. It comes with a price tag of $20 million.
Susan Auch, the Conservative star candidate in Assiniboia said that “Expanding the fitness tax credit would make organized physical activities more accessible and affordable for Manitobans of all ages”.
Really? Do they honestly believe adults are going to shell out $500 for a gym membership or join a hockey league to get $54 back at tax time?
Here’s how I see this one playing out.
People like me who are already committed gym goers will cash in. For several years now I have had a gym membership that costs me about $600 annually.
It is highly unlikely that the credit will inspire adults to join a gym. And it certainly isn’t going to help low-income families in greatest need.
This is $20 million out of the public purse put into the pockets of people who don’t need it.
Here’s an idea. Perhaps the Conservatives could allocate this $20 million toward their crime strategy. They could invest in the excellent community-based programs already providing much needed sport and recreation activities for high-risk youth in the inner city.
This could replace their current plan, which offers up no funding, promising only to “coordinate existing programs”.
Shauna MacKinnon is the Director of CCPA Manitoba
This note, written by Errol Black, shows how Manitoba’s economic well-being has changed over the last 30 years, compared with Canada and the other western provinces.
For many years now, a group of scholars in Canada have been producing estimates based on an Index of Economic Well-being developed in 1998 by the Centre for the Study of Living Standards (CSLS).
The Index is based on four components of economic well-being, namely: effective per capita consumption flows; net social accumulation of stocks of productive assets; income distribution, including the intensity of poverty…and the inequality of income; and economic security from job loss and unemployment, illness, family breakup, and poverty in old age.
In 2010, the CSLS published a Research Report by Lars Osberg and Andrew Sharpe titled New Estimates of the Index of Economic Well-being for Canada and the Provinces 1981-2008.
There is much useful information in this report. Of particular interest are three inter-province comparisons based on different weightings for components of the overall index of well-being. Overall Manitoba has performed well relative to both the country as a whole and other provinces. Under Alternative II which assigns weights of 0.40 to consumption, 0.10 to wealth, 0.25 to equality and 0.25 to security, for example, the record for Manitoba compared to Canada and the other western provinces is as follows:
|
|
Canada |
Manitoba |
Saskatchewan |
Alberta |
British Columbia |
|
Index in 1981 |
0.435 |
0.362 |
0.463 |
0.570 |
0.462 |
|
Index in 1989 |
0.510 |
0.487 |
0.480 |
0.515 |
0.523 |
|
Index in 2000 |
0.522 |
0.501 |
0.523 |
0.600 |
0.518 |
|
Index in 2008 |
0.646 |
0.623 |
0.665 |
0.776 |
0.644 |
|
|
|||||
|
per cent change: |
|||||
|
1981-2008 |
48.3 |
72.1 |
43.7 |
36.1 |
39.6 |
|
1981-1989 |
17.0 |
34.5 |
3.8 |
– 9.7 |
13.4 |
|
1989-2000 |
2.5 |
3.0 |
8.9 |
16.5 |
– 1.0 |
|
2000-2008 |
23.6 |
24.2 |
27.2 |
29.4 |
24.4 |
These data show that Manitoba’s relative performance was especially strong over the entire period 1981-2008 and the period 1981-89, especially weak in the period 1989-2000.
In OECD countries:
The most recent OECD Index of Economic Well-being for selected countries 1980-2007 (Andrew Sharpe, Beyond GDP: Measuring Economic Well-being) yields the following ranking for 2007: Norway, Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden, France, Germany, Finland, Canada, UK, Australia, Italy, United States, Spain. The United States is, of course, way at the bottom on the Index of Equality (Canada, Spain, Italy and the UK are also at the lower end of the scale).
The moral of this story would seem to be that we need to start paying more attention to the measurements of economic well-being and less to the sorts of data that governments, business organizations and right-wing think tanks rattle on about in their commentaries on the state of societies and the world.
Errol Black is the chair of the CCPA-MB’s Board.
This was published in the Brandon Sun this morning.
As we mark Labour Day on September 5th, we should perhaps reflect on the current state of Canadian society and our economic prospects. We are justifiably proud of our framework of laws governing labour relations, employment standards, minimum wages, and safe workplaces. We are also proud of our many public programs that guarantee us access to educational opportunities, health care, and benefits to survive in retirement such as Old Age Security and CPP.
Unfortunately, we tend to take the things we enjoy for granted with little knowledge or appreciation for how they were achieved. As a working person and trade union activist, I have always considered the labour movement as the conscience of society. Our vision and our actions are inspired by a belief that together we can achieve social justice, eradicate poverty, stop racism and establish programs that ensure all families have the necessities of life – a roof over their heads, food security, health care, etc. – and make the world the place we want it to be.
At the present time, crisis conditions in the North American economy and across the globe have had a negative impact on thousands of families through job loss, wage cuts, and the erosion of their savings and pension benefits.
As we look ahead to the coming year, the Brandon & District Labour Council can take pride in the fact that many of the projects we have fought for in recent years are now coming to fruition. The Construction Industry Wages Act has been restructured to ensure construction workers in Brandon and rural Manitoba now get the same minimum wages in their trades as their counterparts in Winnipeg. A new Workers Compensation Board office is coming on stream to provide services in this part of the province, and very soon we will have a Worker Advocacy Office up and running to assist people who need help accessing services and advocacy for appealing denied benefits such as CPP, social assistance and workers compensation while they are unemployed.
In the next year and beyond we will be seeking to preserve the gains that we have successfully lobbied for in Manitoba over the past decade, including: regular increases to minimum wage, improvements in employment standards, and an extension of these benefits to agricultural workers; safer work places with more inspections and harsher penalties for failures to comply with legislation; more services “outside the perimeter” for people in Brandon and rural areas of Southwest Manitoba without taking a step backward.
Also we will be promoting initiatives at all levels of governments to adopt policies and programs that will generate economic growth, create quality jobs that pay living wages and provide working families with the resources they need to ensure their children get the benefits of a decent education and opportunities for recreation and other related activities.
Locally we will be working with everyone in the community to support and stimulate our local economy that includes small business, family farms and the rejuvenation of downtown. These efforts will continue to involve us in campaigns to support the Canadian Wheat Board, keep federal Service Canada jobs in Brandon, and bring new industry to Brandon.
As a final point I would note that all of the measures that we support and promote are consistent with what governments say we should be trying to achieve in Canada. First, working people have always understood that there is no future in cutting wages, destroying quality jobs, and attacking unions. Our proposals will raise wages and incomes in the community, which in turn will improve business conditions in the economy. Second, we have also understood that there is no future in blaming particular segments of our population for the problems that arise during periods of economic crisis – immigrants, union members, public sector workers, etc. Our proposals will improve living conditions for all members of our community, leaving no one behind, which will in turn nurture our pride in being citizens in a progressive and visionary community.
In conclusion, as the struggle continues to protect and improve our standard of living, have a Happy Labour Day.
Jan Chaboyer is the President, Brandon and District Labour Council.
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